Japan Medical Assn: Tokyo Olympics Difficult Without Vaccine
- Details
- Category: Inside Golf
- Published: 2020-04-29
By STEPHEN WADE, Associated Press
TOKYO, Japan — The medical community in Japan is moving toward a consensus that holding next year’s Tokyo Olympics may hinge on finding a coronavirus vaccine.
Japan Medical Association president Yoshitake Yokokura said in a video media conference that the Olympics were possible only if the infections were under control, not only in Japan, but globally.
“In my view, it would be difficult to hold the Olympics unless effective vaccines are developed,” Yokokura said.
He did not say whether he opposes the Olympics without vaccines.
Japan has reported 13,576 COVID-19 cases, and 712 others from a cruise ship quarantined near Tokyo earlier this year. The health ministry reported 389 total deaths from the virus.
Japan and the International Olympic Committee agreed to postpone the Tokyo Games until July 23, 2021, because of the coronavirus pandemic. Japan is under a month-long state of emergency amid a rapid increase of infections across the country
A Japanese professor of infectious disease said last week he was also skeptical the Olympics could open in 15 months.
“I am very pessimistic about holding the Olympics Games next summer unless you hold the Olympic Games in a totally different structure such as no audience, or a very limited participation,” said Kentaro Iwata, professor of infectious disease at Kobe University.
Yoshiro Mori, a former prime minister and now president of the organizing committee, told the newspaper Nikkan Sports there would be no more delays if the games can’t be held in 2021.
“No, in that situation, it will be cancelled,” he said. “In the past, when there were such problems, like wartime, it has been cancelled. This time, we are fighting an invisible enemy.”
Mori added: “This is a gamble for mankind. If the world triumphs over the virus and we can hold the Olympics, then our games will be so many times more valuable than any past Olympics.”
Devi Sridhar, a professor of Global Health at the University of Edinburgh, also said holding the Olympics may depend on finding a vaccine. This could also apply to the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics in China, where the coronavirus was first detected.
She said a vaccine was “optimistically 12 to 18 months away.”
“Science is just half the battle,” Sridhar said in an email to The Associated Press. “The other half is manufacturing enough doses and getting these into people across the world. How would prioritization be done?”
She asked who would get the vaccine first, health workers, those working with the vulnerable or the elderly, or the elderly themselves. Sridhar said it was unclear how young, strong, Olympic athletes would “fit” into the “priority process.”
“I’m sure there is going to be some innovative thinking about how to combine safety of athletes, their coaches and teams, with the awareness that sports play a crucial role for the world — for economic reasons, but also socially,” she said.
Masa Takaya, a spokesman for the Tokyo Olympics, said he was aware of the comments from the head of the Japan Medical Association.
“We understand there are a variety of insights, opinions around the possibility of hosting the games next year,” Takaya said. “Some medical experts are also expressing that it is too early to made a judgment.”
There will a push from many quarters to hold the Olympics next year — vaccine or no vaccine, fans or no fans.
“This is placing tremendous pressure on all involved to devise an acceptable, rather than optimal solution,” David Carter, who teaches sports business at the University of Southern California, said in an email to the AP. “Add to this the unwavering importance the IOC places on its brand, and the uncertainty in terms of public health and you find yourself with international sports’ version of a Rubik’s cube.”
The International Olympic Committee depends on selling broadcast right for 73% of its income. Another 18% is from sponsors. The IOC has only two major events to sell, and broadcasters don’t pay much of their fee until the Olympics are aired.
Japan has officially spent $12.6 billion to organize the Olympics, and a national audit office says the real figure is at last twice that large. Media estimates in Japan say the cost of the delay will be $2 billion to $6 billion.
Add to this 11,000 Olympic athletes, and 4,400 Paralympians. The vast majority get only one shot at the games.
And then there are the sponsors.
Japanese organizers have signed up more than 60, and they have paid about $3.3 billion to be linked to the Olympics. The IOC also had 14 long-term sponsors like Coca-Cola and semiconductor maker Intel, which are reported to pay about $100 million to be linked to the Olympics.
Tokyo has also sold millions of tickets. It’s unclear what will happen if the Olympics are held without fans. The tickets carry a force majeure clause, which may permit organizers to avoid refunds.
Tokyo organizers expected income of $800 million from ticket sales.
“The pandemic is changing sport worldwide,” said Doug Arnot, who has held senior staff or consulting positions with eight Olympic organizing committees.
The Los Angeles-based consultant worked with the Tokyo bid committee, but is no longer involved with Tokyo.
“It will probably have significant impacts on the way we organize events and the way we deliver them. This is not just about Tokyo,” Arnot said. “This is about about the world of mega-events. This virus has changed the way we look at these events. Sport wants to be a responsible member of the world community.”
The Olympic Flame Burns During A Ceremony In Fukushima City, Japan.
Tokyo Olympics: Questions, Few Answers In Face Of Pandemic
By STEPHEN WADE, Associated Press
The Tokyo Olympics were postponed a month ago. But there are still more questions than answers about the new opening on July 23, 2021, and what form those games will take.
In the face of the coronavirus pandemic, will the Olympics really start in 15 months? If so, in what form? With fans? Without fans? Can they open without a vaccine? TV broadcasters and sponsors provide 91% of the income for the International Olympic Committee. How much pressure will they exert on the form these Olympics take? What about the Beijing Winter Olympics, opening in February 2022. China is where the coronavirus was first discovered, and the authoritarian government has been draconian in terms of lockdowns and travel restrictions.
IOC President Thomas Bach has already said there is “no blueprint” in assembling what he called this “huge jigsaw puzzle.”
“I cannot promise ideal solutions,” he said. “But I can promise that we’ll do everything to have the best possible games for everybody.”
Q: Some scientists are skeptical the delayed Tokyo Olympics can open in 15 months. What are the prospects?
A: Many scientists believe an Olympics with spectators can’t happen until a vaccine is developed. That is probably 12-18 months away, experts say, and then there will be questions about efficacy, distribution, and who gets it first. Kentaro Iwata, a Japanese professor of infectious disease, said last week: “I am very pessimistic about holding the Olympic Games next summer unless you hold the Olympic Games in a totally different structure such as no audience or a very limited participation.” Yoshitake Yokokura, president of the Japan Medical Association, came to the same conclusion in a recent interview. An Olympics in empty venues is looking more likely, which is the scenario for many sports. Fans hungry for some action may have grown accustomed to this configuration by the time the Olympics arrive.
Q; Postponing the Olympics will be costly. Who will pick up the expenses?
A: In two words: Japanese taxpayers. Japanese organizers and the IOC have said they are “assessing” the added costs. They have not ventured an estimate — at least not publicly. Estimates in Japan range from $2 billion to $6 billion. Host country Japan is bound by the terms of the Host City Contract signed in 2013 to pay most of the bills. The IOC has already said the delay will cost it “several hundred million dollars.” IOC member John Coates, who oversees preparations for Tokyo, said this money will go to struggling international federations and national Olympic committees, and not to Japan organizers. The bills keep piling up. Japan originally said the Olympics would cost $7.3 billion. Officially the budget is now $12.6 billion, although a national audit board says it’s twice that much. All but $5.6 billion is public money. And now come the costs of the delay. Tokyo organizers were upset last week with the IOC. On its website it had Prime Minister Shinzo Abe saying Japan would pick up the added costs. The IOC deleted the statement, even though in principle it is correct.
Q: Where do we stand with venues and the Olympic Village?
A: Not much word so far. CEO Toshiro Muto has said it will take time to see if all these venues can be used. Of course, some may require renegotiated contacts. Proprietors of all venues will be under tremendous pressure to cooperate so the original competition schedule can be maintained. Tokyo’s Big Sight convention center is likely to remain the media center. Muto said it has been configured for the Olympics and hinted it would likely stay that way. The Olympics draw 11,000 athletes from 206 nations. The Paralympics add 4,400 more.
Q: What about tickets?
A: Organizers have said they will try to honor tickets already purchased. Officials say a total of 7.8 million are available. Organizers budgeted $800 million in revenue from ticket sales, and unprecedented demand has pushed that to $1 billion. That’s roughly 15% of the $5.6 billion of the privately funded operating budget. This income can’t be sacrificed with the bills piling up. Same is true for $3.3 billion sold in local sponsorships. The problems will arise if ticket holders are not allowed to attend and want refunds. Tickets carry a “force majeure” clause, which might free organizers from the obligation to provide refunds. However, it’s not clear that COVID-19 will stand up as a justification.
Q: How reliant is the IOC on income from broadcasters and sponsors?
A: A massive 91% of IOC income is from those two sources — broadcasters and sponsors — and 73% is from broadcasters. Bach has said the IOC does not have “cash flow” problems, and the committee reportedly has a reserve fund of about $1 billion. But it stages only two events every four years, almost the entire source of its $5.7 billion income in a four-year cycle. It’s not like a soccer or baseball league with thousands of matches. It needs the Summer Olympics. American broadcaster NBC pays more than $1 billion to air each Olympics. The IOC will push the Olympics to go forward, in whatever form.
Q: Where is the Olympic flame, which arrived from Greece on March 26?
A: It was taken off public display earlier this month in Fukushima prefecture, located 250 kilometers (150 miles) northeast of Tokyo. Muto said after the Olympic torch relay was cancelled that “the Olympic flame was put under the management of Tokyo 2020. Obviously in the future there is a possibility it might be put on display somewhere. However, for now it is under the management of Tokyo 2020 and I’m not going to make any further comment on the issue.” There are suggestions the IOC is thinking of taking the flame on a world tour, hoping to use it as a public-relations tool and a symbol of the battle against the virus. However, any tour would be impossible until travel restrictions are lifted. Taking the flame away from Japan could also upset the hosts. China took the flame on a world tour in 2008, which was met with protests over China’s human rights policies. At the time IOC President Jacques Rogge said the “crisis” threatened the Olympics. World tours with the flame have not been held since.